Who will Merab Dvalishivili fight next
Leader sits at 86% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Petr Yan
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
Deiveson Figueiredo
Spread
39pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Merab Dvalishivili fight next
Who will Merab Dvalishivili fight next?: Petr Yan
0xeba97b…3305
Who will Merab Dvalishivili fight next?: Sean O'Malley
0x79eff6…fb14
Who will Merab Dvalishivili fight next?: Deiveson Figueiredo
0x879c90…5a16
Who will Merab Dvalishivili fight next?: Cory Sandhagen
0x9ca6fe…2a29
Who will Merab Dvalishivili fight next?: Aiemann Zahabi
0x12dd87…fcf6
Who will Merab Dvalishivili fight next?: Umar Nurmagomedov
0x664a37…15af
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Merab Dvalishivili will face a specific opponent in his next UFC bout, with the leading contract showing 76% confidence. The probability reflects current fighter availability, UFC matchmaking patterns, and public statements about upcoming title contention or ranking positions. The main driver is UFC's scheduling decisions, which depend on fighter injury status, contractual obligations, and promotional priorities. The biggest catalyst will be an official UFC announcement of Dvalishivili's next fight booking, which typically comes 4-6 weeks before event scheduling. Until then, the market is pricing in the most likely opponent based on competitive positioning and the UFC's historical matchmaking approach in the bantamweight division.
- ›Dvalishivli's ranking position and recent performance determine eligibility for title shots versus interim or title-eliminator bouts
- ›Injury status and availability of other top-ranked bantamweights affects who the UFC deems a viable next opponent
- ›UFC event scheduling and fighter contracts dictate when and against whom fights can be realistically booked
- ›Public UFC statements or social media indications from Dvalishivili, opponent candidates, or matchmakers can shift market expectations
- ›Historical patterns in UFC bantamweight matchmaking suggest specific opponents are statistically more likely than others
What moved the line
- May 6Aiemann Zahabi↓20pp32→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Umar Nurmagomedov↓16pp34→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Umar Nurmagomedov↑16pp18→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Sean O'Malley↓13pp44→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Umar Nurmagomedov↓7pp34→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.