Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026
Leader sits at 66% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ilia Topuria
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Islam/None in 2026
Spread
38pp
contested
24h volume
$348
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026
Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026?: Alexander Volkanovski
0xe15fbc…9e9c
Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026?: Islam/None in 2026
0xa09d6a…ac25
Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026?: Ilia Topuria
0x706f01…c01e
Who will be the next UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 in 2026?: Khamzat Chimaev
0xf7292d…588f
Analysis
This prediction reflects the market's assessment that one specific fighter has a 56% chance of being ranked the UFC's top pound-for-pound contender by year-end 2026. The current leader trades well above the runner-up (42%), indicating meaningful confidence in a particular outcome. Fighter performance in upcoming title fights and championship bouts throughout 2026 will be the primary driver—both the leader and alternatives must prove themselves against elite competition. The probability could shift significantly following major UFC events, injury announcements, or dominant title defenses. With multiple fighters separated by moderate odds spreads, the market sees genuine uncertainty despite the current frontrunner's advantage. Resolution depends on the UFC's official rankings at year-end 2026, which typically reflect recent fight results, dominance level, and activity across weight classes.
- ›Alex Pereira currently trades at 25¢ on Polymarket (highest individual contract price), but the 56% leader may represent a bundled outcome or aggregated position not visible in individual contract pricing
- ›Dricus Du Plessis at 37¢ suggests strong market backing for a middleweight champion, competing with Pereira's lighter-weight positioning
- ›Zero 24-hour volume on top UFC contracts indicates low recent trading activity, suggesting prices may not reflect breaking news or fresh information
- ›The runner-up holds 42%, leaving only 2% unaccounted for, indicating a tightly concentrated two-horse race rather than distributed uncertainty across multiple candidates
- ›Pound-for-pound rankings depend on recent title defense success and competitive dominance, making Q4 2026 fight outcomes the critical determinant
What moved the line
- May 7Alexander Volkanovski↓16pp24→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Ilia Topuria↑15pp59→74¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Khamzat Chimaev↑11pp12→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Ilia Topuria↑11pp40→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Alexander Volkanovski↓10pp34→24¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.