Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala
Leader sits at 50% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 49%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Dolce & Gabbana
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
49¢
Tom Ford
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?: Tom Ford
0xf3b7a5…69a1
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?: Armani Privé
0x99ac54…ebc1
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?: Balenciaga
0x3e2b2e…142e
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?: Louis Vuitton
0x1a1ce3…a2a0
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?: Chanel
0xc43d0d…13ce
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?: Dior
0xf2a515…99d7
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?: Dolce & Gabbana
0x6ff482…51f1
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?: Gucci
0xaa21bd…6fa8
Who will Nicole Kidman wear at the Met Gala?: Valentino
0x0a6573…1630
Analysis
This represents traders' current assessment that an unnamed designer (marked as the leading contract) has a 52% probability of dressing Nicole Kidman at the 2026 Met Gala. The leading contract slightly edges the runner-up, suggesting modest consensus rather than overwhelming confidence in any single designer choice. Key drivers include Kidman's historical fashion partnerships, the Met Gala's theme (typically announced in spring), and designer accessibility for high-profile clients. The main catalyst for resolution is the Met Gala itself, scheduled for early May 2026, when attendees' designer choices become publicly known. Current contract prices show tight clustering around 49-50 cents across several designer options, indicating genuine uncertainty in the market about Kidman's selection among multiple plausible choices like Valentino and Louis Vuitton.
- ›The leading contract trades at only 52%, barely above the runner-up at 50%, suggesting no designer has dominant probability in traders' assessment
- ›Armani Privé is priced lowest among major options at 41 cents despite historical Kidman-Armani associations, indicating traders may view recent collaborations as less likely
- ›The Met Gala typically occurs in early May; resolution occurs when Kidman's actual designer choice is publicly confirmed at or before the event
- ›Multiple designer contracts cluster in the 49-50 cent range, showing traders distribute probability across several plausible options rather than converging on one clear favorite
- ›Historical precedent matters: Kidman has worn multiple designers at past Met Galas, and event theme selection influences designer choices each year
What moved the line
- May 2Dolce & Gabbana↑5pp50→55¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Armani Privé↓5pp50→45¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.