Who will perform at World Cup halftime show
Leader sits at 96% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 61%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Shakira
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
61¢
Coldplay
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$791
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 19, 2026
31 days
Venue
Polymarket
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Karol G
0xbc3613…2417
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Sabrina Carpenter
0x3b1403…c033
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Justin Bieber
0xd2db97…8517
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: J Balvin
0xf2cda8…9752
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Burna Boy
0xe8994e…be1a
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Bruno Mars
0x9a603f…05c4
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Shakira
0x2a50f8…c426
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Drake
0x972af4…7c44
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Coldplay
0xc94fe1…04d6
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Chappell Roan
0x27eb74…c174
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Post Malone
0x21e885…1be7
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Cardi B
0x20db5a…8b1b
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Billie Eilish
0x181df7…7854
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Daddy Yankee
0x0163fe…a603
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Travis Scott
0x226b0f…7272
Who will perform at World Cup halftime show?: Anuel AA
0x18b639…b0d1
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Shakira will headline the FIFA World Cup halftime show, currently priced at 97 cents on prediction contracts. The dominant lean toward Shakira likely stems from her previous World Cup halftime performances (2010 in South Africa) and her ongoing global prominence in pop music, though the exact 2026 performer remains unconfirmed. The probability could shift downward if FIFA officially announces a different artist, or if Shakira withdraws due to scheduling conflicts or other circumstances. The runner-up candidate Billie Eilish at 46 cents suggests meaningful uncertainty about alternatives. Resolution will occur when FIFA formally announces the 2026 halftime performer, expected sometime before the tournament begins in June 2026. Contract volume remains modest ($18 daily volume on the leading contract), indicating limited market liquidity rather than overwhelming consensus.
- ›Shakira performed at 2010 World Cup halftime and remains a recognizable global pop icon, which may anchor market expectations without official confirmation from FIFA
- ›FIFA has not publicly announced the 2026 halftime performer as of May 2026, creating genuine information vacuum that contrasts with the 97% market probability
- ›Billie Eilish trading at 46 cents represents the strongest alternative, suggesting traders do not view Shakira as certain despite the high price
- ›Daily trading volume on top contracts remains low ($18-79 across major positions), indicating thin liquidity and potential fragility of the market consensus
- ›The tournament begins June 2026, so official announcement could arrive imminently, making the timing critical for contract resolution
What moved the line
- Jun 10Bruno Mars↑45pp5→50¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11Drake↑41pp2→43¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12Drake↓32pp43→11¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10Sabrina Carpenter↓25pp38→13¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 11Bruno Mars↓24pp50→26¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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