How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season
Leader sits at 93% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 1
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
At least 2
Spread
52pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season?: At least 1
KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-1
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season?: At least 3
KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-3
How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season?: At least 2
KXTRUMPWORLDCUP-26-DJT-2
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 85% chance that Donald Trump will attend at least one match during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which runs from June to July across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This high probability reflects Trump's documented interest in high-profile sporting events and his frequent public appearances, balanced against the inherent unpredictability of his schedule and whether he will prioritize World Cup attendance over other commitments. The gap between the 85% probability for at least one match and the 45% probability for at least two matches suggests uncertainty about the depth of his involvement. Key catalysts will be his stated intentions regarding World Cup attendance and any formal invitations or public commitments he makes in the months leading up to the tournament. Resolution will occur when the tournament concludes in July 2026, at which point records of his actual attendance will be verifiable through media coverage, official records, or public documentation.
- ›Trump's pattern of attending major sporting events (Super Bowls, championship matches, golf tournaments) during comparable time periods
- ›The 2026 World Cup's location in North America, reducing travel friction compared to previous tournaments in Europe or Asia
- ›Public scheduling conflicts or other major commitments that could compete for his time during June-July 2026
- ›Formal invitations or public statements from Trump or tournament organizers regarding his potential attendance
- ›Media tracking and verification capability—attendance at major televised events is typically documented through photography and official records
What moved the line
- Jun 12At least 2↑15pp27→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 13At least 2↑11pp42→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15At least 2↓8pp50→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 12At least 3↑5pp12→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17At least 1↑4pp89→93¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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