Who will Petr Yan fight next
Leader sits at 75% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Merab Dvalishvili
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Sean O’Malley
Spread
62pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$350
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Petr Yan fight next
Analysis
The 76% probability indicates market confidence that Petr Yan has a dominant matchup lined up, with one specific opponent substantially favored over alternatives. This reflects the fragmented nature of the prediction market, where the leading outcome commands three-quarters of the probability mass while runner-up scenarios hold just 14%. The level is driven by available information about UFC scheduling and fighter rankings—likely tied to recent fight results, injury status, or official bout announcements. Resolution depends on official UFC confirmation of Yan's next opponent, which typically occurs through press releases or fight announcements during scheduled events. Market movement would respond to changes in fighter availability, rankings shifts, or competing matchmaking priorities.
- ›Official UFC announcement or confirmed fighter availability status for Yan's next opponent
- ›Recent performance records and ranking positions of potential opponents affecting matchup logic
- ›Volume concentration: the leading contract has substantial probability gap over alternatives (76% vs 14%), suggesting either insider information flow or consensus view among market participants
- ›Historical timing patterns for UFC bout announcements relative to event schedules and fighter turnaround windows
- ›Injury status or promotional priorities of competing fighters who might otherwise face Yan
What moved the line
- May 3Sean O’Malley↓4pp17→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Merab Dvalishvili↓3pp76→73¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.