Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be
Leader sits at 69% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Selena Gomez
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
Gigi Hadid
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2027
417 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be
Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?: Selena Gomez
0x5f731a…c59f
Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?: Sabrina Carpenter
0x56e6dd…1a0a
Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?: Zoë Kravitz
0xeda9eb…e084
Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?: Brittany Mahomes
0x1061ff…2056
Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?: Cara Delevingne
0x978d06…9230
Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?: Gigi Hadid
0xdc7365…aa22
Who will Taylor Swift's bridesmaids be?: Blake Lively
0x1f34cc…ff05
Analysis
This 65% probability reflects market estimates that a specific group of people will serve as Taylor Swift's bridesmaids, contingent on her wedding to Travis Kelce occurring. The high probability suggests significant confidence in a near-term wedding event, though the outcome depends on both the wedding happening and the accuracy of predictions about Swift's bridesmaids selections. Key drivers include media reporting on Swift's inner circle relationships, historical patterns in celebrity wedding parties, and the timeline for a potential 2026 wedding. The main uncertainty resolver will be either an official wedding announcement with bridesmaid details or substantial public evidence that no near-term wedding is planned. Contract liquidity remains thin across related markets, suggesting limited real-world capital backing these predictions.
- ›No official wedding date or engagement has been publicly announced as of May 2026, making the underlying event's timing highly uncertain
- ›Historical data on Swift's close relationships (with musicians, actors, and long-term friends) provides the only basis for bridesmaid predictions, subject to change
- ›Market prices show extreme confidence in specific attendees like Patrick Mahomes (91¢) and Jack Antonoff (88¢), yet very low trading volumes ($3–$10 per contract) indicate minimal liquidity backing these claims
- ›Media coverage of Swift-Kelce relationship status and any wedding planning developments would be the primary catalyst shifting these probabilities
- ›The multi-outcome structure means the 65% leader represents one specific bridesmaid composition scenario, not a general wedding probability
What moved the line
- May 2Selena Gomez↓9pp74→65¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Blake Lively↓6pp56→50¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Blake Lively↑3pp53→56¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.