Who will testify to congress about Epstein
Leader sits at 38% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Elon Musk
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Lord Peter Mandelson
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
52 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will testify to congress about Epstein
Who will testify to congress about Epstein?: Lord Peter Mandelson
0xc8e478…1d46
Who will testify to congress about Epstein?: Elon Musk
0x919acc…57fa
Who will testify to congress about Epstein?: Ex-Prince Andrew
0x39e87f…8e66
Who will testify to congress about Epstein?: Donald Trump
0xf2bdab…8e37
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Elon Musk will testify before Congress regarding Jeffrey Epstein—currently estimated at 52% likelihood. The market prices reflect uncertainty around whether Congress will formally investigate connections to Epstein, whether Musk will be identified in documents or allegations, and whether such identification would trigger congressional testimony. Key drivers include ongoing litigation and document releases related to Epstein, Congressional priorities, and whether Musk becomes a named figure in investigative findings. The primary catalyst will be further Epstein document releases scheduled throughout 2026, which may identify additional individuals Congress targets for testimony. Additional pressure points include any new litigation developments or investigative reporting that surfaces congressional interest in specific figures.
- ›Epstein-related documents are scheduled for phased release in 2026; the scope and contents of these releases will determine whether Musk appears and whether Congress pursues testimony
- ›Congressional priorities and investigative appetite for Epstein-related hearings vary with political conditions; current 52% reflects moderate confidence Congress will pursue this in the next 18 months
- ›Musk's track record of appearing before Congress when subpoenaed or required; historical precedent suggests high compliance rates but no guarantee
- ›Competing outcomes in this multi-outcome market show low individual probabilities across alternatives, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus
- ›Volume data shows modest trading activity ($16-81 per contract), suggesting limited institutional conviction behind any single outcome
What moved the line
- May 6Elon Musk↓25pp52→27¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Lord Peter Mandelson↓15pp33→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Ex-Prince Andrew↓15pp33→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Elon Musk↑14pp38→52¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Ex-Prince Andrew↓13pp46→33¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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