Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026
Leader sits at 49% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Islam Makhachev
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
Ilia Topuria
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Ilia Topuria
0x6e2690…f54a
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Alex Pereira
0x110a8f…2ebd
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Khamzat Chimaev
0x5b1301…afd6
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Jack Della Maddalena
0xf149cb…b813
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Tom Aspinall
0x41e694…b16f
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Alexander Volkanovski
0x6fa64a…034d
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Islam Makhachev
0x9b3ff1…42fd
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Arman Tsarukyan
0x19e5ec…c542
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Alexandre Pantoja
0x46ab91…efc3
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Merab Dvalishvili
0x932322…a071
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Joshua Van
0x384ab0…c0a8
Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?: Dricus Du Plessis
0x25e2b0…7ab0
Analysis
This outcome reflects market estimates for which fighter will hold the top pound-for-pound ranking at year-end 2026. The 50% probability assigned to the leading contract indicates substantial uncertainty about the answer, with a runner-up scenario priced at 46%. The market appears to be pricing in multiple potential paths: a middleweight champion (Khamzat Chimaev currently favored at 72¢ in related Polymarket contracts) could plausibly reach pound-for-pound #1, as could top lightweights like Arman Tsarukyan. Upsets and injuries would materially shift probabilities. The main uncertainty driver is UFC rankings methodology and upcoming title fights—particularly middleweight and lightweight championship bouts—which will determine who holds elite division titles heading into 2027. Major fights or injuries between now and December 2026 will serve as the primary resolution signal.
- ›UFC's official pound-for-pound ranking criteria weight active title holders and recent competition; the leading middleweight contenders (Chimaev, Strickland) have the highest individual contract prices, suggesting market belief in middleweight dominance of P4P rankings
- ›Current UFC title holders and recent title challengers in elite divisions (lightweight, middleweight, welterweight) will almost certainly occupy top P4P slots; Arman Tsarukyan's 20¢ price reflects his lightweight title relevance
- ›The 50% leading contract vs. 46% runner-up spread indicates genuine two-way competition rather than consensus, suggesting the outcome depends on specific fight results and title changes between now and year-end 2026
- ›Injury or inactivity by top contenders could shift rankings dramatically; a fighter's P4P ranking can rise or fall based on both wins and opponents' performances
- ›The 8-contract structure fragments probability across multiple scenarios; no single fighter has overwhelming consensus, implying several legitimate paths to pound-for-pound #1 status
What moved the line
- May 7Dricus Du Plessis↑32pp10→42¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Dricus Du Plessis↓30pp40→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Alexandre Pantoja↑24pp19→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Alex Pereira↓21pp46→25¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Jack Della Maddalena↑18pp11→29¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.