Who will win Chopped Castaways

30-day trend

Analysis

Jean-Paul Bourgeois is priced as a 73% favorite to win the upcoming Chopped Castaways competition, based on aggregated predictions across 12 separate contracts. This probability reflects traders' assessment that Bourgeois has a substantially higher likelihood of victory compared to other competitors. The market shows considerable confidence in this outcome relative to the runner-up at 22%, though the remaining field splits roughly 5% across lower-priced contenders including Paulette Tejada, Ara Zada, Sunny Moody, Cate Meade, and Dwight Hudgins. The resolution will depend on the competition's actual results when Chopped Castaways airs. Key factors likely influencing the pricing include participants' demonstrated cooking skills in prior performances, their strategic strengths in survival or adaptation contexts, and any publicly available information about the competitive dynamics among this specific cast.

• ›Jean-Paul Bourgeois maintains 3.3x the implied probability of the second-place contender, suggesting market participants perceive a material skill or strategic advantage
• ›Paulette Tejada (5¢) is the highest-priced challenger among remaining competitors, with 24-hour trading volume matching lower-tier favorites, indicating some trader disagreement on the consensus ranking
• ›The combined probability of all non-Bourgeois outcomes totals approximately 27%, representing meaningful residual uncertainty despite the strong favorite pricing
• ›Trading volume remains modest ($120+ across top contracts in 24 hours), suggesting limited market participation may increase sensitivity to new information about contestant backgrounds or competition format
• ›Cate Meade, Dwight Hudgins, and Ara Zada are all priced at or below 6¢, indicating the market assigns negligible winning probability to most of the field

What moved the line

• May 27Jean-Paul Bourgeois↓11pp76→65¢ · Polymarket
• May 26Jean-Paul Bourgeois↑5pp71→76¢ · Polymarket
• May 28Stephen Kina↓5pp22→17¢ · Polymarket
• May 29Stephen Kina↑5pp17→22¢ · Polymarket
• May 25Jean-Paul Bourgeois↑4pp67→71¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds