Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala
Leader sits at 26% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Schiaparelli
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
Alexander McQueen
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 4, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala
Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala?: Balmain & Olivier Rousteing
0x8132c7…0026
Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala?: Valentino
0x98ac7f…b551
Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala?: Dolce & Gabbana
0x5de702…627e
Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala?: Tiffany & Co.
0x66d748…ab27
Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala?: Versace
0x333c2d…c7ac
Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala?: Schiaparelli
0xbad218…08a3
Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala?: Alexander McQueen
0x5f2f1a…24e7
Who will Zendaya wear at the Met Gala?: Loewe
0xa3b32c…8858
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that a specific designer will dress Zendaya at the upcoming Met Gala. The current 50% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about her choice, with limited public signals about her designer preference for this event. The main drivers of this probability are Zendaya's past fashion relationships with design houses, any pre-event styling announcements, and broader trends in luxury fashion partnerships. The uncertainty will resolve definitively when Zendaya arrives at the Met Gala and her outfit is publicly documented and confirmed. Current trading volume remains modest, suggesting limited consensus among market participants on which designer outcome is most likely. The competing 50% runner-up outcome indicates the market views at least two potential designer choices as equally plausible given available information.
- ›Zendaya's historical designer relationships and previous Met Gala appearances provide precedent for predicting brand alignment
- ›Public statements from Zendaya, her stylist, or designer representatives before the event would significantly shift probability estimates
- ›The Met Gala's theme and timing relative to designer fashion calendars influence likelihood of specific brand partnerships
- ›Trading volume and contract pricing across related Polymarket contracts suggest limited market confidence in any single outcome
- ›The event date and official attendance confirmation remain critical catalysts for resolving uncertainty and validating the winning contract
What moved the line
- May 3Versace↓46pp50→4¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Valentino↑15pp33→48¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Valentino↑5pp28→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Loewe↑3pp46→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Alexander McQueen↓3pp49→46¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 d ago.