Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner
Leader sits at 90% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tom Tiffany
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Andy Manske
Spread
86pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
94 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Wisconsin Governor Republican Primary Winner
Analysis
This 90% probability indicates market participants assess a strong likelihood that a specific Republican candidate will win Wisconsin's gubernatorial primary. The assessment reflects current polling, fundraising momentum, and endorsement patterns among Wisconsin GOP voters. The key driver maintaining this elevated level is the leading candidate's substantial polling advantage over challengers and established party support. Downside pressure could emerge from unexpected endorsements shifting to rivals, changes in voter sentiment captured in updated polls, or candidate missteps during the campaign period. The primary election date will be the critical resolution event, definitively determining the winner and settling all related contracts. Until then, market prices may adjust based on new polling data, debate performances, or campaign developments that alter perceptions of candidate viability.
- ›Current polling spread between the leading candidate and nearest rival; narrowing margins would reduce the probability
- ›Fundraising and cash-on-hand reports for top-tier candidates; gaps may indicate organizational strength disparities
- ›Endorsements from Wisconsin Republican Party leadership and major figures; shifts could signal changing frontrunner status
- ›Debate performance and media coverage intensity; high-profile gaffes or strong showings could shift market assessment
- ›Historical primary turnout patterns and demographic composition of Wisconsin GOP primary voters versus general election electorate
What moved the line
- May 2Tom Tiffany↑30pp60→90¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (90% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
California Billionaire Wealth Tax Ballot Measure Surges +23¢ — Now 93¢ to Appear
The Polymarket contract for whether a one-time billionaire tax appears on the California 2026 ballot jumped an extraordinary +23¢ to 93¢ today, while the separate 'passes' contract jumped +10¢ to 48¢. This suggests the measure has cleared a major legal or signature-gathering threshold.
2026 Midterms: Democrats 85% to Flip House, Senate a Toss-Up
Prediction markets price Democrats as 85% favorites to flip the House while the Senate races at a coin-flip, with a full Democratic sweep now the single most likely outcome at 50%.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.