Will Caitlin Clark win Commissioner's Cup MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$53
4 contracts
Closes
Aug 1, 2027
449 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Paige Bueckers win Commissioner's Cup MVP
Will Paige Bueckers win Commissioner's Cup MVP?: Paige Bueckers
KXWNBACCUPMVP-26-PBUE
Cluster 2
Will Caitlin Clark win Commissioner's Cup MVP
Will Caitlin Clark win Commissioner's Cup MVP?: Caitlin Clark
KXWNBACCUPMVP-26-CCLA
Cluster 3
Will A'ja Wilson win Commissioner's Cup MVP
Will A'ja Wilson win Commissioner's Cup MVP?: A'ja Wilson
KXWNBACCUPMVP-26-AWIL
Cluster 4
Will Azzi Fudd win Commissioner's Cup MVP
Will Azzi Fudd win Commissioner's Cup MVP?: Azzi Fudd
KXWNBACCUPMVP-26-AFUD
Analysis
This market estimates an 11% chance that Caitlin Clark wins the WNBA Commissioner's Cup MVP award during the 2026 season. The probability reflects her status as a talented but relatively new player competing against established stars in the league. Clark's actual performance during the regular season and the Commissioner's Cup tournament itself will be the primary drivers—strong statistical output and team success would increase her odds, while injuries or underperformance relative to other candidates would decrease them. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty is the completion of the Commissioner's Cup portion of the season, which determines both individual eligibility and voting outcomes. Current pricing suggests the market views other players or candidates as more likely recipients of the award based on factors like experience, historical performance, and team competitiveness.
- ›Clark's statistical performance metrics (scoring, assists, shooting efficiency) during the 2026 WNBA regular season and Commissioner's Cup tournament relative to other MVP candidates
- ›Her team's success in the Commissioner's Cup competition—award voters typically favor players on winning teams
- ›Whether injuries affect her availability or performance during the evaluation period
- ›Voter preferences and historical voting patterns for MVP awards, which may favor established veterans over younger players
- ›Strength of competing candidates and their respective performance levels in 2026
What moved the line
- May 6Caitlin Clark↑16pp4→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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