SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Jan 15, 2027 · 251d

Will at least 10% of total games be played in the 2026 Pro Women's Basketball regular season

Leader sits at 95% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

95%

At least 75% of total games

runner-up 94¢leader 95¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

94¢

At least 90% of total games

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Jan 15, 2027

251 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAt least 75% of total games: 95% (15 days, 8 points)At least 75% of total games: 95% on 2026-04-22At least 90% of total games: 94% (15 days, 9 points)At least 90% of total games: 94% on 2026-05-02At least 50% of total games: 95% (15 days, 8 points)At least 50% of total games: 95% on 2026-05-01
At least 75% of total games95¢At least 90% of total games94¢At least 50% of total games95¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 15d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This contract predicts whether at least 10% of scheduled games in the 2026 WNBA regular season will be played. At 96% probability, the market assigns very high confidence this threshold will be met. The high probability reflects that game cancellations severe enough to drop below 10% completion would require extraordinary circumstances—such as league-wide labor stoppages, extended facility unavailability, or catastrophic logistical failures. Historical WNBA seasons have maintained near-complete game schedules despite occasional weather delays or localized disruptions. The main downside scenario involves an unresolved labor dispute or force majeure event before the season concludes in September 2026. Resolution depends on whether the regular season runs substantially as scheduled without major interruptions causing 90% or more of games to be cancelled.

  • WNBA regular season structure typically includes 40 games per team over 5 months with established venue access and scheduling protocols
  • Labor negotiations and collective bargaining agreement status as of May 2026 determines operational continuity throughout the season
  • Cumulative game cancellations to date in 2026 WNBA season and any emerging patterns of postponements or disruptions
  • Historical precedent shows fewer than 10% of WNBA games cancelled in most seasons, with major stoppages being rare events
  • Upcoming season calendar milestones and any announced scheduling conflicts or venue complications through September 2026

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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