2026 Women’s Singles Roland Garros

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that a specific player will win the 2026 Women's Singles title at Roland Garros. The market shows significant fragmentation across candidates, with no single player commanding consensus—Elise Mertens leads contract pricing at 42¢, followed by Jasmine Paolini at 36¢ and Elina Svitolina at 30¢. The 47% top contract price reflects compressed odds among a field where depth and recent form carry weight. Key drivers include current WTA rankings, performance on clay courts, injury status entering the tournament in late May, and head-to-head matchup histories. The tournament itself—scheduled for May 24–June 8, 2026—will provide the definitive resolution. Until then, uncertainty remains elevated because form can shift rapidly in the three weeks before competition, and clay-court specialists often outperform their off-court rankings.

• ›Elise Mertens and Jasmine Paolini account for 78¢ of top-contract value, suggesting the market views them as co-favorites despite pricing fragmentation
• ›Zero 24-hour trading volume across all listed contracts indicates minimal recent information flow or market activity to move prices
• ›The spread between the highest-priced contract (42¢) and runner-up (36¢) is narrow enough that a small shift in player form or clay-court performance data could reverse positioning
• ›Roland Garros typically rewards players with strong clay-court records; players' performance at other European clay events in May will be observable signals
• ›The tournament date (late May 2026) is approximately three weeks away from this snapshot, leaving room for injuries, upsets at warm-up events, or ranking changes to shift market consensus

What moved the line

• May 6Winner: Karolina Muchova↓14pp44→30¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Winner: Victoria Mboko↓13pp43→30¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Winner: Mirra Andreeva↓8pp15→7¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Winner: Victoria Mboko↑8pp30→38¢ · Polymarket
• May 7Winner: Ekaterina Alexandrova↑7pp30→37¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds