World Cup Winner
Leader sits at 16% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Spain
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Germany
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$3.0M
liquid
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
World Cup Winner
Analysis
Spain and France are tied as the joint favorites at 17% each in the 2026 World Cup winner market, meaning traders estimate roughly a 1-in-6 chance either team captures the tournament. This probability reflects expectations about each nation's squad depth, recent competitive performance, and fitness heading into the tournament scheduled for June-July 2026. Key drivers include roster composition changes, injury status of star players in the months before competition, and head-to-head matchup positioning within tournament brackets. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the tournament draw and final squad announcements, typically released weeks before play begins, which will clarify team strength and path-to-victory scenarios. Until then, market prices may shift on international friendly results and player injury updates that signal team readiness.
- ›Spain and France both priced at 17¢, while Portugal trails at 10¢ and Germany at 5¢, indicating modest differentiation among traditional powerhouses
- ›Market shows high uncertainty: the combined probability of all nine contracts is well under 100¢, suggesting traders assign meaningful odds to long-shot outcomes not listed in top contracts
- ›Portugal's 10¢ price reflects a lower perceived win probability despite recent tournament success, suggesting doubts about squad renewal or sustainability
- ›The 2026 World Cup is scheduled for June-July 2026, with squad announcements and tournament draw occurring in the months before that serve as near-term information events
- ›High 24-hour volume across Spain (441k), France (374k), Portugal (542k), and Norway (469k) contracts indicates active trader disagreement on relative team strength
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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