Will Nathan Florence win the Wave of the Winter
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6
5 contracts
Closes
Jun 15, 2026
37 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Barron Mamiya win the Wave of the Winter
Will Barron Mamiya win the Wave of the Winter?: Barron Mamiya
KXWOTW-26-BARR
Cluster 2
Will John John Florence win the Wave of the Winter
Will John John Florence win the Wave of the Winter?: John John Florence
KXWOTW-26-JOHN
Cluster 3
Will Shane Dorian win the Wave of the Winter
Will Shane Dorian win the Wave of the Winter?: Shane Dorian
KXWOTW-26-SHAN
Cluster 4
Will Nathan Florence win the Wave of the Winter
Will Nathan Florence win the Wave of the Winter?: Nathan Florence
KXWOTW-26-NATH
Cluster 5
Will Balaram Stack win the Wave of the Winter
Will Balaram Stack win the Wave of the Winter?: Balaram Stack
KXWOTW-26-BALA
Analysis
The 9% probability indicates markets assess Nathan Florence has roughly a 1-in-11 chance of winning the Wave of the Winter award in 2026. The low odds likely reflect competitive depth in professional surfing, where multiple elite athletes compete across variable ocean conditions throughout the season. Factors supporting higher odds would include consistent high placements in major competitions or favorable swell patterns at key events. The main catalyst determining this probability will be results from major surfing competitions as they occur throughout the winter season, with year-end award voting providing final resolution.
- ›Nathan Florence's historical placement rates in Wave of the Winter voting compared to current year competition field
- ›Volume and consistency of high-scoring waves Florence produces relative to competing professional surfers
- ›Ocean swell patterns and scheduling of major surfing events during the winter period affecting opportunity for standout performances
- ›Voting methodology for Wave of the Winter award and any changes to judge panels or criteria for 2026
- ›Results from significant competitions held prior to and during the winter season that influence year-end voting
What moved the line
- May 8Barron Mamiya↑5pp12→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Balaram Stack↑5pp9→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Barron Mamiya↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 2John John Florence↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.