Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 2 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
31%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$467
2 contracts
Closes
May 6, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy” vs “Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Tōkyō Verdy - More Markets: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)
0x2ae2eb…68c8
Cluster 2
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0x4612ca…3182
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects the current market expectation for a specific outcome in an upcoming Wrexham AFC versus Middlesbrough FC match. The assessment is grounded in the teams' recent form, head-to-head history, and current league standings. Key drivers of this probability level include each team's recent performance trajectory, injuries or roster changes, and home-field advantages. The probability will likely shift as match day approaches and updated team information becomes available, particularly any announcements regarding player availability or tactical adjustments. The resolution will occur on the scheduled match date when the final result is determined.
- ›Wrexham and Middlesbrough's points tallies and recent win-loss records in their current league season
- ›Historical head-to-head outcomes between these two teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- ›Confirmed player absences, injuries, or suspensions affecting either team's lineup strength
- ›Home venue advantage and historical performance differential between teams at their respective grounds
- ›Current league positions and playoff/promotion implications that may affect motivation or risk tolerance
What moved the line
- May 6Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)↓20pp26→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (31% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 d ago.