Will Miroslava Medvedeva win the Medvedeva vs Akli
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$243
2 contracts
Closes
May 20, 2026
11 days
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Zhuoxuan Bai win the Bai vs Liang: Semifinal match
Will Zhuoxuan Bai win the Bai vs Liang: Semifinal match?: Zhuoxuan Bai
KXWTACHALLENGERMATCH-26MAY09BAILIA-BAI
Cluster 2
Will En-Shuo Liang win the Bai vs Liang: Semifinal match
Will En-Shuo Liang win the Bai vs Liang: Semifinal match?: En-Shuo Liang
KXWTACHALLENGERMATCH-26MAY09BAILIA-LIA
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 h ago.