Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC - More Markets

30-day trend

Analysis

The 52% probability reflects market expectation that Wuhan San Zhen FC will win their upcoming match against Qingdao Hainiu FC. This represents a modest favorite position, roughly 24 percentage points ahead of the runner-up outcome at 28%. The current level reflects trading activity across five contracts on Polymarket, with the leading contract priced at 52 cents. Key drivers include recent team form, head-to-head history, and current squad composition relative to Qingdao Hainiu. The probability may shift significantly closer to the match date as more information about injuries, tactical adjustments, or team lineup changes emerges. Resolution depends on the outcome of the scheduled match itself, which will determine whether Wuhan San Zhen wins, loses, or draws.

• ›52% represents the single highest-priced contract outcome among five alternatives, not a mean or aggregate—indicating concentrated trader conviction rather than consensus
• ›The 24-point gap between the leader (52%) and runner-up (28%) suggests asymmetric uncertainty, with a meaningful tail of outcomes totaling 20% distributed among other possibilities
• ›Trading volume on Polymarket contracts for related Chinese football matches (Qingdao vs. Tianjin, Gimcheon vs. Ulsan) ranges $33–$91 over 24 hours, indicating moderate but not deep liquidity in this market segment
• ›The probability is responsive to real-time information and will likely experience largest moves within 48 hours before kickoff when team news (injuries, suspensions, lineups) becomes confirmed
• ›No specific scheduled event date is provided in available data, requiring confirmation of match timing to assess proximity to resolution

What moved the line

• May 6Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5)↓21pp33→12¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Wuhan San Zhen FC (-2.5)↓19pp26→7¢ · Polymarket
• May 6Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)↓6pp18→12¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)↑6pp26→32¢ · Polymarket
• May 3Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5)↑4pp29→33¢ · Polymarket

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds