XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 84% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$40M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
$80M
Spread
71pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$11K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
582 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch
XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $60M
0x645695…c20a
XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $80M
0xb3faca…d26f
XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $150M
0x609c5c…5193
XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0x8d375f…f9a3
XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0xdc338f…5c31
XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xbb9ba5…4436
XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $40M
0x0a5587…730d
Analysis
This contract measures the probability that XMAQUINA will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of at least $10 million within one day of its token launch. The 97% probability reflects near-certainty in the market that this modest valuation threshold will be met. The wide gap between the $10M contract (97¢) and higher thresholds like $40M (50¢) and $150M (43¢) suggests traders expect the token to launch successfully and reach initial trading valuations, but are far less confident about significantly higher outcomes. The primary driver is whether the launch executes on schedule with sufficient liquidity and buyer interest to achieve even the lowest threshold. Resolution depends on the launch date and how FDV is calculated—typically by multiplying token price by total supply at the moment trading begins. Upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand or a larger initial supply, while downside risks involve launch delays, regulatory issues, or minimal initial trading volume.
- ›Launch execution status and timing remain the core uncertainty—delays or technical failures would pressure the $10M threshold down
- ›Initial token liquidity and order book depth at launch will directly determine achievable FDV; insufficient trading volume could prevent price discovery at claimed valuations
- ›Total token supply announced at launch directly multiplies with opening price to determine FDV; larger supply pools risk valuation
- ›Market demand relative to other comparable token launches; comparison to similar projects' first-day valuations provides calibration
- ›Definition and verification of FDV used for resolution—whether it includes all outstanding tokens or only circulating supply affects threshold achievability
What moved the line
- May 28$80M↓25pp48→23¢ · Polymarket
- May 28$40M↓24pp77→53¢ · Polymarket
- May 26$40M↑23pp50→73¢ · Polymarket
- May 28$100M↓16pp36→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 28$60M↓15pp51→36¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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