Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Kashima Antlers
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Draw (Yokohama F·Marinos vs.
Spread
21pp
contested
24h volume
$59
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: Draw (Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers)
0xd37b9b…c78d
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: Kashima Antlers
0xaa6825…bdbc
Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers: Yokohama F·Marinos
0x4e2c33…05a2
Analysis
This market reflects the implied likelihood that Kashima Antlers will defeat Yokohama F·Marinos in an upcoming match, based on aggregated contract prices from prediction markets. At 48%, Kashima is favored but not strongly—the market also assigns substantial probability to both a Yokohama victory (32%) and a draw (31%). The relatively tight distribution suggests the outcome is genuinely uncertain, likely reflecting comparable team strength or recent form. Contract volumes show minimal recent trading activity, meaning these prices may not incorporate very recent information. Key factors moving this probability would include team roster availability, recent head-to-head performance, home-field advantage implications, and current league standings. The resolution will occur once the match concludes and the official result is recorded.
- ›Current odds imply Kashima as slight favorite, but the 16-percentage-point spread between first (48%) and second place (32%) is not a decisive gap
- ›Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours suggests limited new information flow into the market since prices were last set
- ›The three outcomes are relatively balanced (48%-32%-31%), indicating substantial residual uncertainty rather than high confidence in any single outcome
- ›Recent team form, injury status, and head-to-head record would be primary inputs for updating these probabilities
- ›Match date and kickoff time would determine when this market resolves to a definitive outcome
What moved the line
- May 7Yokohama F·Marinos↓5pp31→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Draw (Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers)↓3pp30→27¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.