yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Leader sits at 75% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 67%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$30M
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
67¢
$50M
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$70
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
602 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch
yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M
0xaf5e90…504e
yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
0x0440d0…463f
yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M
0xc7d462…1bbf
yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $30M
0xefb298…8ffc
yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $200M
0x8e6a26…7ea5
yo.xyz FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M
0xe9955a…fb3b
Analysis
This prediction reflects the market's assessment that yo.xyz will achieve a fully diluted valuation above $500 million within one day of its launch. The 72% probability indicates substantial confidence in this outcome, supported by significant trading volume across multiple valuation thresholds. The market is pricing in optimistic launch conditions, likely influenced by comparable crypto asset launches and early trading momentum. Key drivers of this probability include actual launch date timing, initial trading volume and demand, and whether the project meets or exceeds pre-launch community expectations. The resolution hinges entirely on the FDV calculation method used and the exchange data captured in the 24-hour window following launch. Downward pressure could emerge if launch delays occur, technical issues arise, or initial trading activity disappoints relative to current expectations reflected in related contracts.
- ›Launch timing and coordination with major exchanges—delays or limited exchange availability would reduce trading volume and potentially lower FDV
- ›Initial trading volume and price discovery—the 24-hour FDV calculation depends directly on actual transaction activity, order book depth, and market maker participation
- ›Comparison to related contracts shows market hedging across thresholds ($100M at 89¢, $800M at 17¢), suggesting uncertainty about the precise valuation range rather than fundamental launch success
- ›The $5,580 in 24-hour volume on the $500M contract indicates active price discovery but relatively modest contract liquidity for a binary outcome
- ›Discrepancy between Polymarket's 44¢ average and the 72% leader price suggests potential arbitrage opportunities or disagreement among traders on valuation probability
What moved the line
- May 6$500M↑26pp9→35¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$50M↑9pp62→71¢ · Polymarket
- May 6$100M↑9pp42→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 3$50M↑6pp56→62¢ · Polymarket
- May 7$50M↓5pp71→66¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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