SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsPolymarketrefreshed 5 min agoCloses May 10, 2026 · 1d

Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets

Leader sits at 68% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

68%

O/U 1.5

runner-up 51¢leader 68¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

51¢

Both Teams to Score

Spread

17pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

May 10, 2026

1 days

Venue

Polymarket

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayO/U 1.5: 66% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 1.5: 66% on 2026-05-08Both Teams to Score: 52% (3 days, 3 points)Both Teams to Score: 52% on 2026-05-08O/U 2.5: 50% (3 days, 3 points)O/U 2.5: 50% on 2026-05-08
O/U 1.566¢Both Teams to Score52¢O/U 2.550¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 3d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market reflects the likelihood that both Zweigen Kanazawa and Albirex Niigata will score goals in their upcoming match. At 47%, this outcome is currently favored over individual team victories in the spread contracts, where Zweigen holds a slight edge. The Both Teams to Score probability depends on the defensive and offensive strength of each squad relative to their typical output. Factors that would shift this include recent team form, injury status among key players, and weather conditions on match day. The probability will move closer to final resolution once the match is played, with real-time scoring determining the outcome. Currently, the low trading volume suggests limited market participation, which means early pricing may not yet fully reflect all available information about team lineups or conditions.

  • Both Zweigen Kanazawa and Albirex Niigata have demonstrated capacity to score in recent matches, supporting a moderately elevated probability of mutual goals
  • The 47% probability places Both Teams to Score ahead of individual spread outcomes (Zweigen at -2.5 is 27%, Albirex at -1.5 is 33%), suggesting defensive vulnerabilities or offensive consistency across both teams
  • Match date and kickoff time directly affect playing conditions and team roster availability, which materially impact scoring likelihood
  • Polymarket shows zero 24-hour trading volume across all five contracts, indicating minimal recent market activity and potentially stale pricing
  • Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two J-League opponents would establish a baseline for typical goal distribution in their matchups

What moved the line

  • May 7O/U 4.510pp2818¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8O/U 4.54pp1814¢ · Polymarket
  • May 8Albirex Niigata (-2.5)3pp2730¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.