Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets
Leader sits at 68% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 51%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
O/U 1.5
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
51¢
Both Teams to Score
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Polymarket
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets: Zweigen Kanazawa (-1.5)
0xad2812…4906
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets: Both Teams to Score
0x7ce26c…bd11
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets: O/U 4.5
0x664420…22c5
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets: O/U 3.5
0x181f81…afa3
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets: O/U 2.5
0xa38cb9…bb93
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0xd5d79e…233a
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets: Albirex Niigata (-2.5)
0xc61b71…8856
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets: Zweigen Kanazawa (-2.5)
0x650004…6b9b
Zweigen Kanazawa vs. Albirex Niigata - More Markets: Albirex Niigata (-1.5)
0x8e0ec6…ebc2
Analysis
This market reflects the likelihood that both Zweigen Kanazawa and Albirex Niigata will score goals in their upcoming match. At 47%, this outcome is currently favored over individual team victories in the spread contracts, where Zweigen holds a slight edge. The Both Teams to Score probability depends on the defensive and offensive strength of each squad relative to their typical output. Factors that would shift this include recent team form, injury status among key players, and weather conditions on match day. The probability will move closer to final resolution once the match is played, with real-time scoring determining the outcome. Currently, the low trading volume suggests limited market participation, which means early pricing may not yet fully reflect all available information about team lineups or conditions.
- ›Both Zweigen Kanazawa and Albirex Niigata have demonstrated capacity to score in recent matches, supporting a moderately elevated probability of mutual goals
- ›The 47% probability places Both Teams to Score ahead of individual spread outcomes (Zweigen at -2.5 is 27%, Albirex at -1.5 is 33%), suggesting defensive vulnerabilities or offensive consistency across both teams
- ›Match date and kickoff time directly affect playing conditions and team roster availability, which materially impact scoring likelihood
- ›Polymarket shows zero 24-hour trading volume across all five contracts, indicating minimal recent market activity and potentially stale pricing
- ›Head-to-head historical scoring patterns between these two J-League opponents would establish a baseline for typical goal distribution in their matchups
What moved the line
- May 7O/U 4.5↓10pp28→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 8O/U 4.5↓4pp18→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Albirex Niigata (-2.5)↑3pp27→30¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.