California Governor Primary Shakes Up: Hilton Soars, Steyer Crashes
Steve Hilton's probability to advance to the California governor runoff jumped 35¢ to 89¢ after a new poll showed him in second place, while Tom Steyer collapsed 38¢ to 10¢. The runoff now looks likely to be between Becerra and Hilton.
Key takeaways
- 01
Steve Hilton's probability to advance to the California governor runoff jumped 35¢ to 89¢ after a new poll showed him in second place, while Tom Steyer collapsed 38¢ to 10¢.
- 02
The runoff now looks likely to be between Becerra and Hilton.
- 03
The California governor primary is seeing a major shakeup just days before the election.
Full analysis
The California governor primary is seeing a major shakeup just days before the election. Steve Hilton, a Republican former Fox News host, saw his odds of advancing to the top-two runoff leap 35¢ to 89¢ on Polymarket, after a Monmouth University poll showed him at 22% support, tied with Xavier Becerra and well ahead of Tom Steyer (8%). Steyer’s probability cratered 38¢ to 10¢, effectively knocking him out of contention. The market 'Parties advancing from the California Governor primary?: Dem-Rep' surged to 88¢, indicating a cross-party runoff is now the expected outcome. This has implications for the general election: a Becerra vs. Hilton race would be a marquee matchup. The Kalshi markets KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26 show Becerra at 98¢ to finish first, while KXCAGOVMATCHUP-26JUN bets on a Becerra-Hilton advance at 86¢. Traders should monitor the June 2 primary results closely.
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sf book KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26