2026 Midterm Primaries Heat Up: Steyer Surges in California, Fujimori Stumbles in Peru
Tom Steyer's odds to advance from the California gubernatorial primary skyrocketed 17 points to 49¢, while Keiko Fujimori's lead in Peru's presidential race shrank by 9 points to 63¢, signaling realignment in two major elections.
Key takeaways
- 01
The 2026 election cycle is delivering real-time volatility.
- 02
In California's gubernatorial primary, Tom Steyer (ticker: 0x9af5f84576108c73b2) saw his probability of advancing surge 17 points to 49¢, on volume of 61,072.
- 03
This sharp move suggests a major shift in donor or polling momentum for the billionaire progressive.
Full analysis
The 2026 election cycle is delivering real-time volatility. In California's gubernatorial primary, Tom Steyer (ticker: 0x9af5f84576108c73b2) saw his probability of advancing surge 17 points to 49¢, on volume of 61,072. This sharp move suggests a major shift in donor or polling momentum for the billionaire progressive. The incumbent favorite, Xavier Becerra (ticker: KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26), continues to dominate for 1st place at 97¢, but the fight for the second spot (top-2 advance) is now a two-way race between Steyer (49¢) and Steve Hilton (54¢, down 15 points).
In Latin America, the Peru presidential race market (ticker: 0xc4c3dbcc37a957a817) saw a significant reversal. Keiko Fujimori dropped 9 points to 63¢, while challenger Roberto Sánchez Palomino (ticker: 0x2cd24d17f5680dc6e7) surged 12 points to 38¢cars. This 21-point swing reflects a tightening race as the election approaches, with implications for copper mining policy and sovereign debt markets.
On Kalshi, the House control market (CONTROLH-2026-R, Republicans 21¢, down) and Senate control (CONTROLS-2026-R, Republicans 57¢) reflect a stable but competitive environment. The most liquid race by volume remains the Maine Senate primary, where Graham Platner (KXSENATEMED-26-GRA) is the near-unanimous Democratic favorite at 95¢, with over 394,000 in volume.
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