California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades

The 2026 election cycle is generating substantial trading volume, particularly in the California governor and Los Angeles mayor races. In the California governor's primary, Xavier Becerra (ticker: KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26) holds at 99 cents to finish first, but the market for who will advance to the general election saw a notable shift. Steve Hilton's 'will advance' contract (ticker: 0x583a50565864766017) jumped 7 cents to 96 cents, suggesting the Republican candidate is consolidating support to secure a top-two spot. Becerra vs Hilton (ticker: KXCAGOVMATCHUP-26JUN) is trading at 93 cents, indicating this is the expected November matchup. The Kalshi 'who will win the governorship' contract (ticker: KXGOVCA-26-XBEC) favors Becerra at 86 cents, with Hilton and Tom Steyer far behind at 2 cents each. In Los Angeles, the mayoral primary is a hotly contested market. The favorite to win, Karen Bass (ticker: 0x0c9ada12c527451fbd), trades at 61 cents. The Spencer Pratt phenomenon appears to be fading, as his contract fell 3 cents to 1 cent (ticker: 0x5a965e943de13a4bde) and his vote share contracts (KXVOTEPRIMARY-MAYORL) show the highest probability is for him to receive at least 24% at 96 cents, but with lower thresholds like 27% at only 2 cents. Nithya Raman's 'win the election' contract (ticker: 0x694595d0a008f10e47) rose 3 cents to 38 cents, making her the primary challenger to Bass. The 'Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass' exact match-up contract (ticker: KXLAMAYORMATCHUP-26J) trades at 97 cents, signaling traders expect a Bass vs Raman runoff. For Senate control, Kalshi's 'Will Republicans win the Senate in 2026?' (CONTROLS-2026-R) sits at 56 cents, a toss-up. The Texas Senate race is particularly active, with Ken Paxton (R) at 60 cents against James Talarico (D) at 41 cents. Traders should monitor these swing races for general election positioning.