HIGH·BUY NO·geopoliticsApr 13, 2026
Hungary 60M turnout threshold has 55-cent contagion lag
The 62M total vote threshold crashed -68¢ (implying turnout is well below 62M), yet the 60M threshold sits at only 13¢ — a 55¢ contagion gap. If 62M votes did NOT occur, it is nearly certain 60M also did not occur (62M > 60M is a strictly harder bar). This is a textbook monotonicity violation: buy NO on the 60M contract at 13¢ for a near-certain 87¢ payout.
edge55¢
horizonApr 12, 2026
directionBUY NO
markets1
Catalyst
62M threshold crashed -68¢ implying sub-60M turnout; monotonicity demands 60M contract follow
Risk
Final vote count exceeds 60M despite early market signals; data misread
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