HIGH·BUY NO·geopoliticsApr 13, 2026

Hungary 60M turnout threshold has 55-cent contagion lag

The 62M total vote threshold crashed -68¢ (implying turnout is well below 62M), yet the 60M threshold sits at only 13¢ — a 55¢ contagion gap. If 62M votes did NOT occur, it is nearly certain 60M also did not occur (62M > 60M is a strictly harder bar). This is a textbook monotonicity violation: buy NO on the 60M contract at 13¢ for a near-certain 87¢ payout.

edge55¢
horizonApr 12, 2026
directionBUY NO
markets1
Catalyst

62M threshold crashed -68¢ implying sub-60M turnout; monotonicity demands 60M contract follow

Risk

Final vote count exceeds 60M despite early market signals; data misread

Referenced Markets

Execute with CLIsf ideas && sf book KXHUNGARYTURNOUT-26APR12-6000000

More Ideas