HIGH·BUY YES·macroApr 13, 2026
54-cent OKX IPO cross-venue arb: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Kalshi prices OKX IPO in 2026 at 68¢; Polymarket prices the same event at 14¢ — a 54¢ gap on an identical binary outcome. Confidence score is 1 (maximum). Buy NO on Kalshi (or YES on Polymarket) simultaneously for a near-riskless 54¢ spread. This is the single largest cross-venue arbitrage in today's full dataset. Even with execution friction and position limits, effective edge exceeds 40¢.
edge54¢
horizonDec 31, 2026
directionBUY YES
markets2
Catalyst
Pure cross-venue mechanical arb; buy Polymarket YES + Kalshi NO simultaneously
Risk
Markets resolve at different times or have different resolution criteria; venue-specific settlement rules may differ
Referenced Markets
POLY·0x9f8ed8dc9919fdd73e5ad3ad11a55a5170b8b5d1fc719882b96d230163d0477d
OKX IPO in 2026?
loading…sf ideas && sf book KXIPO-26-JERSMore Ideas
WTI $86 minimum target is mispriced after Iran repricing
BUY YESHIGH82¢ edgemacro
Bitcoin $77K+ on Kalshi is a 26-cent structural mispricingBUY NOHIGH26¢ edgecrypto
Trump China visit at 93¢ is 33 cents too rich with ME assets pinnedBUY NOMEDIUM24¢ edgegeopolitics
Hungary 60M turnout threshold has 55-cent contagion lagBUY NOHIGH55¢ edgegeopolitics
TISZA margin 9-12% bracket oversold after reported landslideBUY YESLOW4¢ edgegeopolitics