HIGH·BUY YES·macroApr 13, 2026

54-cent OKX IPO cross-venue arb: Kalshi vs Polymarket

Kalshi prices OKX IPO in 2026 at 68¢; Polymarket prices the same event at 14¢ — a 54¢ gap on an identical binary outcome. Confidence score is 1 (maximum). Buy NO on Kalshi (or YES on Polymarket) simultaneously for a near-riskless 54¢ spread. This is the single largest cross-venue arbitrage in today's full dataset. Even with execution friction and position limits, effective edge exceeds 40¢.

edge54¢
horizonDec 31, 2026
directionBUY YES
markets2
Catalyst

Pure cross-venue mechanical arb; buy Polymarket YES + Kalshi NO simultaneously

Risk

Markets resolve at different times or have different resolution criteria; venue-specific settlement rules may differ

Referenced Markets

KALSHI·KXIPO-26-JERSKalshi
Who will IPO in 2026? (OKX)
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POLY·0x9f8ed8dc9919fdd73e5ad3ad11a55a5170b8b5d1fc719882b96d230163d0477d

OKX IPO in 2026?

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Execute with CLIsf ideas && sf book KXIPO-26-JERS

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