Bitcoin $77K+ on Kalshi is a 26-cent structural mispricing

Kalshi Bitcoin price contracts above $72,500–$77,000 all sit at exactly 50¢ — a mechanical default suggesting stale/untraded liquidity. Thesis-implied prices are 8–25¢, implying 25–27¢ effective edge on the NO side. Iran sanctions, USD debasement pressure, and risk-off flows are bearish for BTC near-term; the market prices a coin-flip where thesis implies 90%+ chance BTC does NOT clear $77K by Apr 10. Sell YES (buy NO) across the ladder for 25c+ edge per contract.