HIGH·BUY YES·macroApr 13, 2026
WTI $86 minimum target is mispriced after Iran repricing
WTI $86 minimum-by-Apr-30 sits at 18¢ after falling 5¢ today, yet the $105 contract just surged to 83¢ and $110 to 77¢ on Iran/Hormuz risk. Spot WTI is trading near $100+ implied by the upper contracts, making the $86 floor a near-certainty at current spot. The -5¢ move on KXWTIMINM-26APR30-T86 is a contagion lag — upper strike repriced +34¢ while this floor contract barely moved. Buy YES at 18¢ for a minimum 82¢ payout.
edge82¢
horizonApr 30, 2026
directionBUY YES
markets2
Catalyst
WTI $105 contract at 83¢ implies spot already well above $86 floor; Iran/Hormuz disruption risk sustained
Risk
Rapid ceasefire or Iran deal collapses oil premium; diplomatic meeting markets surging today
Referenced Markets
sf ideas && sf book KXWTIMINM-26APR30-T86More Ideas
Bitcoin $77K+ on Kalshi is a 26-cent structural mispricing
BUY NOHIGH26¢ edgecrypto
Trump China visit at 93¢ is 33 cents too rich with ME assets pinnedBUY NOMEDIUM24¢ edgegeopolitics
Hungary 60M turnout threshold has 55-cent contagion lagBUY NOHIGH55¢ edgegeopolitics
TISZA margin 9-12% bracket oversold after reported landslideBUY YESLOW4¢ edgegeopolitics
54-cent OKX IPO cross-venue arb: Kalshi vs PolymarketBUY YESHIGH54¢ edgemacro