Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress?
KXDHOUSESEATS-27-249 · closes Feb 1, 2027 · 294 days remaining
Price
Last
21¢
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$36
Open Interest
$27,099.79
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 496.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 31.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.05 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1046% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 4.37 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 472% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
51 indicator snapshots · 5 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.341
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 1:34:14 PM
About this market
If the Democratic party has above 249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXDHOUSESEATS-27-249 yes 100