Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Aug 1, 2026?
KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-AUG01 · closes Aug 1, 2026 · 110 days remaining
Price
Last
41¢
Bid
40¢
Ask
41¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$1,092.04
Open Interest
$8,435.28
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 499.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 222.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.3% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.03 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 244% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
20 indicator snapshots · 10 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 1:34:14 PM
About this market
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXHEGSETHOUT-26APR-AUG01 yes 100