Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
0x1166388a24a3f2a9bb0a45956bdb205c70f0ecafb8539e277a57adf022e306be · closes Apr 30, 2027 · 381 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 303.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 30.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.2% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.08 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 292% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.52 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.5/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 278% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
32 indicator snapshots · 11 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x1166388a24a3f2a9bb0a45956bdb205c70f0ecafb8539e277a57adf022e306be yes 100