Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will 11-12 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0x16ffe828264931ee812ab6ba10c018c5e263506e015b07c51faa49a6272dca87 yes 100