SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026?

This market shows a stark 14-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing the SAVE America Act at 22¢ versus Polymarket's 8¢, suggesting significant disagreement on passage probability or potential liquidity/trust differences between venues. The extreme 5713% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the deep discount price, but zero 24-hour volume and modest $37k open interest indicate thin liquidity that may explain the pricing disconnect and make execution risky. With 73 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, the market remains highly sensitive to legislative developments, though the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest no recent material news has shifted sentiment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law, or is otherwise enacted into law, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/7296) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

Trade