Will a NYSE marketwide circuitbreaker happen before 2027?

22¢

Bid/Ask 22/26¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $300.98·OI $59,585.74·Closes Jan 1, 2027·259d remaining

KXNYSECIRCUIT-27

7-day price8 snapshots · 8 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The 26¢ price implies a roughly 1-in-4 chance of a NYSE-wide circuit breaker in the next 260 days, though the extreme 498% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing or tail-risk premium given the low 24-hour volume of just $233. The neutral regime and modest 7-day price appreciation (21¢ to 22¢) indicate the market hasn't reacted to recent volatility spikes, potentially leaving value on the table if market stress materializes before year-end 2027.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 24¢(Δ -2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.85IY 448.9%Close-time delta 39h

Resolution rules

If any New York Stock Exchange marketwide circuit breaker is imposed after December 9, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.5%

IY (No) 39.7%

Adj IY 204%

CRI 4

LAS 0.18

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	39.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	204%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.18	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 12:53:28 PM

Observability mediumEvent type financial

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/17/2026, 12:38:50 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNYSECIRCUIT-27 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →