Will becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?

This cannabis banking reform market shows a stark 15-cent cross-venue gap, with Kalshi pricing the legislation at 22¢ versus Polymarket's 7¢, suggesting either significant arbitrage opportunity or differing trader sophistication between platforms. The 499.4% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the long-shot odds, but the recent 3-cent price decline over 7 days and thin 24-hour volume of just $3.52 indicate minimal conviction and liquidity concerns that could amplify volatility as the 259-day expiry approaches. With a Cliff Risk Index of 4 and neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position with meaningful execution risk rather than a consensus legislative outcome.

Resolution rules

If legislation that forbids federal banking regulators from terminating or limiting FDIC/NCUA insurance solely because a depository institution provides financial services to a state/tribal-legal cannabis business has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade