Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the June meeting?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15.139k open interest and an unusually wide 82¢ spread, suggesting significant pricing uncertainty around the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 decision. The 50¢ midpoint implies a coin-flip outcome, but both sides show exceptionally high implied yields (496.7% for Yes, 583% for No), indicating the market is pricing in substantial tail risk rather than reflecting genuine equilibrium. The 1936% realized volatility and sharp 37¢ to 50¢ price movement over seven days, combined with a 7.37 vol ratio and 4.5/hour information arrival rate, suggest this market is experiencing significant repricing events despite the distant June 2026 expiry, warranting caution on position sizing given the illiquidity-volatility mismatch.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade