What will Rick Scott say during Fox News Sunday?

82¢

Bid/Ask 82/85¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $5.22·OI $5.22·Closes May 4, 2026·16d remaining

KXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR19-TRUM

7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market displays extreme illiquidity and asymmetric risk typical of niche political prediction markets, with only $5.22 in 24-hour volume and identical open interest suggesting minimal trading activity. The 82-cent price implies an 82% probability Rick Scott will mention Trump during his Fox News Sunday appearance, yet the implied yield for "No" positions reaches an extraordinary 10,209.9%, indicating the market severely underprices tail risk and reflects very low conviction behind the high Yes price. With 16 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5 (maximum), this market carries substantial execution risk—the low volume and tight 3-cent spread mask the difficulty of actually trading these positions at quoted prices.

Resolution rules

If Rick Scott says Trump as part of Fox News Sunday , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 496.1%

IY (No) 10295.8%

Adj IY 4960%

CRI 5

Overround 4.8%

LAS 0.04

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	496.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10295.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	4960%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 10:33:51 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 10:23:21 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXPOLITICSMENTION-26APR19-TRUM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →