Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026?
0x369a334757b7a931fb8e76c57301c8e98d3563a96f34836eb165d66f5e24395c · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 262 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 494.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.27 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 180% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
3 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Bieber and/or Hailey Bieber announce their intention to legally separate or divorce between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET of their intention to separate or divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the separation or divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual separation or divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Justin Bieber, Hailey Bieber, and/or their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x369a334757b7a931fb8e76c57301c8e98d3563a96f34836eb165d66f5e24395c yes 100