Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?

The Democratic contract has rallied 5 cents over the past week to 27¢, implying only a 27% win probability in Ohio's 7th district, a traditionally Republican seat. The 498% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme underdog pricing with relatively thin liquidity ($10,990 open interest, $528 daily volume), creating potential opportunity if Democrats' actual chances exceed the current discount. With 198 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market appears to be pricing in Republican structural advantage rather than reflecting recent polling shifts, though the low volume warrants caution on execution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade