Ausar Thompson: 1+ steals

86¢mid

Bid/Ask 83/88¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 3, 2026·15d remaining

KXNBASTL-26APR19ORLDET-DETATHOMPSON9-1

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a true probability estimate. The astronomical implied yields (497.5% for Yes, 11,859.8% for No) and 5¢ spread reflect minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus, with a Cliff Risk Index of 5 indicating high uncertainty about resolution mechanics. With only 15 days to expiry and the underlying game originally scheduled for April 19, 2026, there's significant risk that this contract may face resolution delays or cancellations if the game is postponed.

Resolution rules

If Ausar Thompson records 1+ Steals in the Orlando at Detroit professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 500.0%

IY (No) 11918.5%

Adj IY 5601%

CRI 5

Overround 4.2%

LAS 0.06

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	500.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11918.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5601%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

5¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 11:47:35 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 11:38:29 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBASTL-26APR19ORLDET-DETATHOMPSON9-1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →