Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 4,393.8% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues legislative risk despite the market's neutral regime score and recent 1¢ decline over seven days. The combination of minimal 24-hour volume ($10) and substantial open interest ($21,586) indicates low liquidity relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk and raising questions about whether the price reflects genuine consensus or illiquidity-driven undervaluation. With 75 days to expiry and a maximum cliff risk index of 9, this contract faces substantial tail risk if legislative momentum suddenly accelerates, making the asymmetric payoff structure particularly sensitive to political developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade