Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
0x45275d3e32a04a01a6f6a972fa95c2c78bf05bf5f096c651aa1f52648588a109 · closes May 16, 2026 · 32 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 11401.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 111.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 10 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 4.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.56 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2533% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
65 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 3 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 3 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x45275d3e32a04a01a6f6a972fa95c2c78bf05bf5f096c651aa1f52648588a109 yes 100