Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
0x4a65baaa70de1f81dee2e542891f9827d9fba525fabb221c308d0d4605f76ea5 · closes May 16, 2026 · 32 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 14981.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 84.9% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 13 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 10.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.14 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 6420% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
0 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 10 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 10 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x4a65baaa70de1f81dee2e542891f9827d9fba525fabb221c308d0d4605f76ea5 yes 100