Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
0x583a505658647660175c2e0aa70b4a460d8c34a6b3f46251ce5f9f46e9886c50 · closes Jun 2, 2026 · 49 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 184.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 2957.3% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.03 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 281% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 2.12 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2883% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
199 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x583a505658647660175c2e0aa70b4a460d8c34a6b3f46251ce5f9f46e9886c50 yes 100