Will the debt ceiling be raised?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 58% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
58%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4
4 contracts
Closes
Mar 31, 2029
965 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will the national debt hit $” vs “Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the national debt hit $
Will the national debt hit $50 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $50 trillion
KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-50
Will the national debt hit $45 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $45 trillion
KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-45
Will the national debt hit $40 trillion during the Trump Administration?: $40 trillion
KXDEBTGROWTH-28DEC31-40
Cluster 2
Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026
Analysis
Prediction markets assign a 27% probability that legislation to increase the statutory public debt limit will become law before January 1, 2027. There is minimal expectation of immediate action, with only a 7% market-implied probability that such legislation passes before November 1, 2026. Conversely, the market suggests the national debt is highly likely to continue growing, with a 97% chance it hits $40 trillion during the Trump Administration.
- ›27% chance of debt limit increase by Jan 2027
- ›7% chance of debt limit increase by Nov 2026
- ›97% probability of $40 trillion national debt
- ›Debt ceiling abolition seen as unlikely at 7%
What moved the line
- Aug 2Above 1.00%↑7pp16→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Above 1.00%↓5pp19→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Above 1.00%↑4pp14→18¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in economy
- What are the odds of a US recession in 2026?last 16% · 0d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 0d
- What will China GDP growth be in 2026?last 33% · 1d
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 50% · 6d
- Will Italy GDP growth rate YoY adv for Q1 2026 be above -1%last 80% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In economy
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.