Will the debt ceiling be raised?
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5%1 markets·Kalshi + Polymarket
Analysis
There is currently no market evidence or actionable data suggesting a US debt ceiling crisis or imminent default. Markets are essentially focused on the long-term growth of the national debt, which is projected with 99% certainty to reach $40 trillion and 88% certainty to reach $45 trillion during the Trump administration.
- ›$40T national debt projection (99% probability)
- ›$45T national debt projection (88% probability)
- ›Debt ceiling abolition perceived as unlikely (3% probability)
- ›Fiscal stability expectations