Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

This market is pricing an extremely low probability (5%) for 2026 being the fourth-hottest year on record, yet shows extraordinary asymmetric yield potential of 2,689% for YES positions against just 7.4% for NO—a 363x disparity that suggests severe mispricing or extreme risk aversion. The massive realized volatility of 2,416% and vol ratio of 4.94 indicate this contract has experienced wild swings despite modest recent price movement (4¢ to 5¢ over seven days), with a high cliff risk index of 19 suggesting binary resolution dynamics. With $24.3M open interest but only $501K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is concentrated and the tight 0¢ spread masks potential slippage on larger positions, making this a speculative edge for contrarians willing to bet against the consensus bearishness on 2026's temperature ranking.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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