Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?

This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 7501.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 17¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a thin-liquidity artifact. The sharp 41% price appreciation over seven days (12¢ to 17¢) combined with 2570% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 5 indicates highly unstable pricing dynamics in a market with only $1,052 open interest. With just 24 days until expiry and April 2026 temperatures already largely determined, this market's extreme yield and volatility likely reflect mispricing rather than legitimate uncertainty about whether April will rank fourth-hottest or lower.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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